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Oil falls to 3-year low in Asia

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell to a 3-year low below US$49 a barrel Friday in Asia as plunging stock markets, driven down by more bad U.S. economic news, battered investor confidence.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was down 95 cents to $48.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore.

The December contract, which expired Thursday, fell overnight by $4.00 to settle at $49.62 after sliding to $48.50, the lowest level since May 18, 2005.

"Sentiment is totally bearish, parallel to the stock market,'' said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.

"Everyone is just doom and gloom and not seeing any light on the horizon for the next 12 months.''

Traders are worried that a global recession will undermine energy demand. Already, oil prices have tumbled by two-thirds from their peak of nearly $150 a barrel in mid-July.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.6 percent Thursday to its lowest level since March 2003 after the Labor Department said new applications for jobless benefits exceeded analyst estimates and rose to the highest level of claims since July 1992.

The S&P 500 index fell 6.7 percent Thursday to an 11-year low. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 52 percent below its October 2007 record, making this the second-biggest bear market on record, exceeded only by the 83 percent drop between 1930 and 1932.

Asian stock markets followed their U.S. counterparts down Friday, but they pared losses as trading progressed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index was down 1.2 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 1.4 percent. South Korea's key index was up 0.4 percent.

"$50 was a psychological support level,'' Rigby said.

"Since we haven't traded this low for so long, it's hard to find a new support level.''

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of global supply, may cut production before its next official meeting on Dec. 17, Rigby said. OPEC President Chakib Khelil has signaled the group may announce output reductions at the meeting, but some members, such as Iran, have called for earlier cuts.

OPEC lowered production quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.

"Their revenues are dropping so much, I think OPEC will have to call an extraordinary meeting and cut quotas to try to support the market,'' Rigby said.

"Their last cut had zero impact on the market.''

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 1.0 cent to 99.7 cents a gallon.

Heating oil gained 2.14 cents to $1.65 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery slid 3.8 cents to $6.28 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, December Brent crude fell 68 cents to $47.40 on the ICE Futures exchange.

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MISC, Genting lift KLCI out of red

KUALA LUMPUR: Some buying interest in MISC and Genting nudged the 100-stock KL Composite Index into positive zone but trading was relatively thin and the broader market still weak.

At 12.30pm, the KLCI was up just 0.69 point to 882.34. Turnover was 281 million shares valued at RM261mil. Decliners led advancers 232 to 132 while 164 counters were unchanged.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index was 0.29% or 5.11 points lower at 1,754.03 but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.41% to 13,598.84.

Light crude oil was trading at US$56.08, down 96 cents while crude palm oil prices fell RM35 to RM1,425.

MISC rose 20 sen to RM8.50 while QSR, YTL, KFCH and Genting added 10 sen each to RM2.37, RM6.45, RM6.90 and RM4.54 respectively.

KNM was the most active with 40.9 million shares traded. It eased 0.5 sen to 67 sen.

Meico was the top loser, down 21.5 sen to 26 sen with 5,000 shares done. Shell lost 15 sen to RM9.65, United Plantations and Sime Darby shed 10 sen each to RM10.40 and RM6.25.

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Stocks slightly higher in cautious trade

KUALA LUMPUR: Stocks were slightly higher in early trade on Monday on some mild buying interest in stocks like KL Kepong, WCT and Muhibbah but the general mood was still cautious.

At 9.30am, the KL Composite Index was up 1.71 points to 895.66. Turnover was 125.13 million shares valued at RM117.75. There were 151 gainers, 54 losers and 112 counters unchanged.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 4.98% or 427.77 points to 9,010.77, Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.04% to 1,864.21 while Shanghai’s A Share Index opened 2.27% higher at 1,877.73.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.19% to 1,136.65. Fitch Ratings had lowered the country’s rating outlook to “Negative” from “Stable” on concerns that the de-leveraging of the banking system might contribute to an erosion of the sovereign's external credit strengths.

On Sunday, China unveiled a US$586bil stimulus package to prevent the world's fourth-largest economy against the global financial crisis.

The Chinese government approved a plan to invest the money in infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010.

Oil prices jumped US$2.96 to US$64 while the ringgit was quoted at RM3.5345 to the US dollar as at 9.30am.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said it expected the KLCI to swing sideways with a modest upward bias.

It expected the KLCI to recover further, extending its cumulative gain of 92.7 points or 11.6% from a recent trough of 801.27, while wobbling to search for a stable footing simultaneously.

“This is not to say that there is no more tangible downside risk on our local bourse – as our medium-term bearish stance remains – though trading-oriented investors may be in the mood to take the risk for potential short-term gains,” it said.

The return of trading activity in speculative penny stocks, assuming it persisted, would hold up the overall market volume ahead, it added.

KLK rose 15 sen to RM8.35 while WCT added 13 sen to RM1.84, Parkson 12 sen to RM3.56 while Muhibbah added nine sen to RM1.15.

Genting added six sen to RM4.56, Sime Darby and Bursa five sen higher to RM6.25 and RM5.80.

IOI Corp rose four sen to RM3.16 in active trade, MRCB added three sen to 85.5 sen while KNM added 1.5 sen to 67 sen.

TMI was among the losers, down 14 sen to RM4.54 while Tanjong and Maybank fell 10 sen each to RM12.50 and RM5.55 respectively. BCHB lost five sen to RM6.10 and TM fours en to RM3.30.

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US stocks rise after two days of heavy selling

NEW YORK: Buyers returned to Wall Street Friday after two days of heavy losses, mindful of the economy's growing problems but attracted by stocks' lower prices.

Analysts said the advance, which also came amid relief that a bad report on unemployment wasn't worse and followed dour third-quarter reports from Ford and General Motors, was to be expected as Wall Street experiences a rocky recovery from October's devastating selling.

The major indexes jumped more than 2 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which rose 250 points in light trading.

For the week, the Dow and broader benchmarks like the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost about 4 percent after surging 10 percent or more last week.

The market briefly came off its highest levels of the session after President-elect Obama reiterated that there is a great deal of hard work to be done to restore the economy to health.

Investors had optimistically sent prices higher, only to temporarily pull back when Obama underscored what they already know: that the economy's problems won't be easily solved.

The Dow rose 248.02, or 2.85 percent, to 8,943.81.

The broader S&P 500 index added 25.87, or 2.86 percent, to 930.75, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 38.70, or 2.41 percent, to 1,647.40.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 9.95, or 2.01 percent, to 505.79.

George Shipp, chief investment officer at Scott & Stringfellow in Richmond, Virginia, said Obama appeared to be trying to telegraph to the market not to expect too much immediately.

Obama, noting that he has until January before taking office, said he will work to support an economic stimulus plan and will seek ideas for helping the auto industry.

"My expectation is that he lowers the bar and buys the time,'' Shipp said.

"Certainly there is no reason to create any undue expectations right now.''

That afternoon blip upward, retreat and move higher was a mini-version of the market's performance over the past two weeks, with investors turning upbeat, then realizing there was little basis in reality for their resurgent confidence, then changing their minds again.

Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Investments said the market's turns aren't a surprise.

"I think it's absolutely part of the bottoming process,'' Smith said.

"The Oct. 10 low has been tested again a number of times.''

The blue chips hit an intraday low of 7,882.51 on Oct. 10.

Friday's economic and corporate news reminded the market that the country could be in for a deep and protracted recession.

The Labor Department said the nation's employers cut 240,000 jobs in October, hurtling the U.S. unemployment rate to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent.

The market had expected employers to cut 200,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to rise 6.3 percent.

Meanwhile, Ford Motor Co. reported a $129 million third-quarter loss and announced plans to cut more than 2,000 additional white-collar jobs.

General Motors Corp. said it lost $2.5 billion in the quarter and warned that it could run out of cash in 2009.

The struggling automaker also said it has suspended talks to acquire Chrysler.

Although the day's news was on its face worse than expected, investors were drawn by prices beaten down the past two sessions and some relief that the reports weren't more grim.

"We're coming off of a very oversold market that had already braced itself for bad news out of Detroit and certainly bad economic data in terms of the labor report,'' said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.

The market is following the pattern of volatility that analysts warned would prevail for some time to come.

Obama's election to the White House was preceded by a big rally, during which the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index surged 18.3 percent in six sessions up through Tuesday.

This was followed by a two-day loss of about 10 percent in the major indexes, including a 929-point drop in the Dow, as investors turned their focus once more to the economy's woes.

"There are three factors that are driving this market: psychological, fundamental and technical,'' Smith said.

"The psychological is fear and panic. We've certainly seen that.''

The fundamental factor is investors don't know exactly how the current credit crisis is going to affect the economy.

And the technical factor that is playing in to the market is the forced selling from hedge funds and mutual funds that have to raise cash for redemptions, Smith said.

Nov. 15 is the cutoff for shareholders to notify fund managers of their intent to cash out investments before year-end, which means a sudden influx of "sell'' orders could force funds into dumping more investments.

Analysts expect this to continue to add to the volatility in the market.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 1.23 billion shares.

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